The big day is almost upon us. Next Tuesday is election day and all of the debates, campaign ads, and townhalls will come to a close as Americans cast their vote. Most Presidential elections are filled with uncertainty, yet this one has been on a different level. For the first time we had the nominee from a major party drop out after they won their primary. We also witnessed an assassination attempt and watched a candidate become the first former President to be found guilty of felonies. We’ve had the usual run of attack ads and had a few debates where verbal punches were thrown. All of it was headline grabbing, yet when the polls close next Tuesday, it won’t really matter. What will matter is the policy decisions that our new President will implement when they take office next January.
When the smoke clears early Wednesday morning, we will have President-elect Donald Trump or President-elect Kamala Harris. When that happens, there will be a flood of analysts pouring in to declare how things are going to change. There will be plenty to sort out first though. The new administration won’t take office until next year, meaning we will have almost three months before any policy changes. We will also have to see whether the House and Senate majority end up as the same party as the President next week. Historically, one or both being the same increases the number of changes the next President can make.
The uncertainty of who will be the next President will be solved by next week; however, there will still be ambiguity regarding what that President will do once in office. Some policies are almost guaranteed to happen. During his first term, Trump raised tariffs and there is no reason to think that he would not follow through and raise them again as he has been saying for his entire campaign. Similarly, Harris will certainly raise the corporate tax rate, as it has been one of her longest standing policies and would be a continuation of what Biden began. Other policies like giving federal land to foreign companies to build factories or cracking down on price gouging at the retail level are question marks. Policies like these have been nebulous from the start and it is difficult to say what form they would take or how they would impact the economy, the candidates themselves have provided little detail. We know that in general, Trump’s policies are focused on businesses and Harris leans more towards consumers. Of course, no administration has ever been able to pass the entirety of their agenda and many of the policies that these two candidates have discussed in debates or interviews will never see the light of day.
While there will still be a lot to sort out over the coming months, there is good news for business and consumers. Whatever changes that the next administration implements, they will take time to come about. That period will be crucial in giving our economy and infrastructure time to adapt to what is sure to be a shift from the status quo. All eyes are on the showdown next week. The election is about to come to a close, yet the fallout and work ahead are just beginning.