Black Friday is traditionally the end of year benchmark for retailers, yet will that hold true in 2022? What was once a 24-hour shopping spree has expanded into something that is almost unrecognizable. It’s the beginning of October and Black Friday sales have already started to roll in, a far cry from the days when it was rare to see a retailer kick off the sale on Thanksgiving night. This expansion of this shopping holiday was slow at first, yet it has exploded since 2020. The early start time of the deals was meant to offset the effects of the pandemic; however, it may have done more harm than good.

The first time Walmart and Target opened their doors on Thanksgiving Day, it was inevitable that the length of Black Friday would balloon. The concept of post-Thanksgiving sales bringing companies into the black has been around since the 1950’s, though it was in the 1980’s that the modern conception of Black Friday took hold. It is the largest retail shopping event of the year, and it is critically important for companies to get right; it can make or break them financially. If one shopping day can be so beneficial, then why not have more?

Over the past two years the expansion of Black Friday was directly meant to counter lost revenue from the pandemic and potential supply shortages. The extended time for shoppers certainly gave retailers more leeway with the strained supply chain, yet it may not have increased revenue directly. Retailers have doubled down on the strategy this year and we are looking at almost two full months of Black Friday deals. Walmart and Target have already launched their sales and Amazon is holding an unprecedented second Prime Day on Oct. 11^th. Amazon’s willingness to double dip after an already successful Prime Day earlier this year gives us some insight into just how important this holiday shopping season will be.

The economy has been in a difficult place this year and despite spending from consumers, it has not greatly improved. Retailers seem intent on willing November’s spending numbers into October as well, yet this may not have the intended effect. Instead of having one massive month of spending, we are likely looking at two good months of spending. The infusion of revenue from Black Friday will be spread out over eight weeks, making it less impactful overall. These October sales are too much of a good thing and it will drive consumers to finish their shopping sooner than later. This will be beneficial for the supply chain, although it will be a disappointment to all those retailers counting on a late November surge. The expansion of these deals has also removed the urgency behind taking advantage of them. There is no need for a consumer to rush to Target today for a doorbuster when they know there will be twenty more days between now and Thanksgiving. In a time when wallets are tighter, retailers have given people a reason to hold onto their money, not to spend it.

Black Friday has lost its luster and while the shine has dulled, the power has not. The day after Thanksgiving will likely draw in a record number of consumers, although we may see more of those dollars won in October than November. The holiday shopping season has already kicked off and any retailers waiting for those traditional late November shoppers will be left out in the cold. We could see a shopping burnout effect with the weekend following Thanksgiving looking tame in comparison to previous years. The economy is struggling, and it is necessary for retailers to make the most of Black Friday, which for better or worse, starts right now. CSG will continue to monitor the spending sentiments throughout the year; check back each month to see our latest Consumer Spending Report and how shoppers plan to use their dollars.